We are in the BEST of Times
There was some concern that the economy was sliding back towards arecession or a no-growth mode. But that was before the solid retail sales
and employment figures were released. We now know that jobs are being
produced and consumers are spending as usual. But even as these solid
numbers were posted, the markets continued to be confounded by the fact
that long-term interest rates are staying low despite the fact that the
Fed has raised rates eight times over the past year. How can this be so?
For now there is no indication that inflation is a long-term threat. This
conclusion is underscored by the fact that the core rate of inflation at
the consumer level did not rise at all last month, even though oil prices
have risen significantly over the past year.
Before 9-11 we had the best of all worlds. Is it possible that the good
times are back? In the late 1990’s we had solid but unspectacular economic
growth, low interest rates, low inflation rates and solid job growth. Put
these all together and this certainly goes a long way towards explaining
why we laid the foundation for a real estate boom in the past six years.
Just add a few other factors such as strong population growth through
immigration and the rise of new mortgage programs such as interest only
and no-downpayment loans and it is no wonder that real estate has been a
sizzling investment. If the real estate boom is to continue despite high
home prices in many places, we really do need the best of all worlds. The
markets seemed to be reacting in a way that would cause the party to
continue—for now anyway.


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